Djokovic Wins ATP Finals; 2024 Outlook
Djokovic adds yet another title to his remarkable 2023 season, and the season comes to a close. With that, I will be giving my major takeaways from the end of this season, and the implications that provides for the next.
Jannik Sinner 🇮🇹
The young Italian star showed serious sparks towards the end of the year, defeating world No. 1 Novak Djokovic for the first time in his career—twice (once in the ATP Finals group stage and once in the Davis Cup). He also managed to defeat fellow rival and world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz 7-6, 6-1 in the China Open. These victories land Jannik Sinner the world No. 4 heading into the 2024 season.
Despite Sinner’s impressive wins and undeniable ability, he has very little to show for it. With only a singular Master’s 1000 title and zero Grand Slam final appearances, Sinner’s resume, in my opinion, is far less than his level. However, I think this is due for a major change in 2024.
With all four of Sinner’s ATP titles coming on the hard court in 2023, I think it’s safe to say this is his strongest surface. This is where I expect Jannik to perform best next season. In particular, I think the Australian Open is the biggest hope for Sinner. I believe the young Italian should look to channel his red hot form and hard court ability into perhaps his deepest run at a Grand Slam yet.
2024 Projection: 1 Grand Slam final, 2 Master’s 1000 titles
Rafael Nadal 🇪🇸
While Nadal coming back to professional play in 2024 is certainly exciting news, I must admit to not being the most optimistic for his return. While Nadal has proven his resilience time and time again, we must face the facts: Nadal is a 37-year-old, injury ridden player who was last seen in January of 2023 losing in the second round of the Australian Open. Simply put, Nadal is out of form and out of shape. This won’t fare well for a player who’s game is largely centered around his athletic ability.
Nadal’s return feels strongly akin to Federer’s comeback in 2021, where he played in very few tournaments all year long until concentrating his effort into one final attempt at a Wimbledon title. I expect Nadal’s 2024 season to look similar, with a heavily focused push towards the French Open.
If fully healthy, I still think it’s possible Nadal could cause some serious damage next season, particularly during the clay season. While I think it’s unlikely that Nadal will win a fifteenth French Open, I believe his raw talent on clay makes him a force to be reckoned with.
2024 Projection: French Open QF, Retirement
Carlos Alcaraz 🇪🇸
The end of Alcaraz’s season left a lot to be desired; after losing in the semi-finals of the US Open, Carlos seemed to have gone down a slippery slope, falling short of the finals in four consecutive tournaments to end the season.
Despite his end of the year shortcomings, Alcaraz’s season still had many highs to be pleased with. Most notably, being the only player to defeat Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam in 2023, en route to winning his second Grand Slam title at Wimbledon. The culmination of Alcaraz’s explosiveness, touch, and pure shot making ability still makes Alcaraz the future of tennis. With some time to recuperate in the off-season, I expect Carlos to come back to his normal self in 2024.
2024 Projection: 2 Grand Slam Finals, 1 Grand Slam Title
Novak Djokovic 🇷🇸
Despite a near perfect season, I thought Djokovic was showing poor signs moving forward during the US Open; he was taking medical timeouts nearly every match, serving at a seemingly much lower level than his usual, and had what I believe to be his worst Grand Slam Final performance of the year.
Regardless of Novak’s struggles, he was able to persevere his way into a record-extending 24th Grand Slam title, following it up with a Master’s 1000 title and a 7th ATP Finals victory to ease any doubts. While I find it hard to believe Djokovic will find the same levels of success in 2024, at the end of the day, Novak will be Novak.
2024 Projection: 3 Grand Slam Finals, 2 Grand Slam Titles