Season Ending Sentiments

The end of the 2023-24 season has been very bittersweet for Packers fans; on one hand you saw Jordan Love in his first year as a start lead the youngest roster in the entire NFL to the playoffs in what was meant to be a rebuilding year. But on the other hand you saw the Packers lose in the divisional round in a game they were winning a large majority of the time, including late into the fourth quarter. On top of that the two teams the Packers would’ve had to beat to win the Super Bowl following the divisional round were the Lions and the Chiefs—two teams the Packers had defeated in back-to-back games earlier this season.

Future Outlook

Despite the somewhat disheartening conclusion to the season, Packers fans remain with their heads held high—and why shouldn’t they? If the Packers could accomplish this much with such a young team, imagine what they can do in the following seasons. While the logic is sound, history has shown us things aren’t always that simple. In order to win a Super Bowl, a lot of things must go right.

Injuries

Firstly, you need immense amounts of luck with individual player health. In a league as physical as the NFL, it’s very rare you’ll have as few injuries to key players come playoff time as the Packers did this season vs the 49ers. While I certainly do not hope for it, it’s definitely possible that the Packers could suffer an injury to a key player next year, which could be enough to derail the entire season, as well as stunting the growth of a developing roster.

Form

Since the NFL’s best-of-one format, teams cannot afford to have off-nights come playoff time. Because of this, form may be the most important determining factor for team’s performances in the post-season. Take a look at the Philadelphia Eagles for example: this was a team that started off the season with a remarkable 10-1 record—the best in the NFL. However, they lost 5 of their next 6 games to end the regular season, and wound up being defeated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their first playoff game in dominant fashion, despite being the team with the better record. With essentially the same roster that was able to make a Super Bowl appearance just the year before, the Eagles were a team that had proven their ability to win games, even against top teams. Regardless, whatever the cause may be, a streak of poor form came at the wrong time, leading to a major collapse.

The point I’m trying to make is it’s not always possible to control when your performance peaks, and even great teams can be susceptible to unfortunate spells of play. Despite some serious flaws early in the season, the Packers were able to end the regular season going 6-2 in the last 8 games, playing their best football all year long on both offense and defense. While the roster will remain more or less the same next season, there’s no guarantee their form will continue.

Coaching

A confounding variable amongst many Super Bowl champions is elite level coaching. While I believe Matt LaFleur has proven himself as an extremely high level offensive play caller, concerns still remain about the defensive side of the ball. For three seasons straight the Packers have often struggled defensively under defensive coordinator Joe Barry. While the Packers made what seemed to be a necessary change by firing Barry, his replacement Jeff Hafley is still an unknown quantity. While fans are excited about a new coordinator, its uncertain whether the Packers defensive woes will be solved.

2021-22 Bengals

If you take a look at the Cincinnati Bengal’s season outlook in the 2021-22 season, the general sentiment was they would be a below average team in a rebuilding year with young players such as Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and more. Despite this, they were able to peak at the right time and massively outperform expectations by making a deep playoff run all the way to the Super Bowl. Bengals fans were ecstatic about their team’s future, anticipating similar or even better levels of success in the near future due to their young and developing roster. Sound familiar?

If you take a look at the Bengals since then, the anticipated success has not quite been the case. The following year, despite having another impressive season, they were unable to reach the same peaks from the previous year, falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship, the same team they beat the previous year to make the Super Bowl. Then in the 2023-24 season, Joe Burrow struggled with injuries all year long, missing 7 games in total, resulting in a 9-8 record, falling short of the playoffs. Now the Bengals are paying Joe Burrow a $275 million contract, are likely going to have to pay Ja’Marr Chase a hefty contract extension before next season, and are shortly running out of cap space to build a contending roster. While the Bengals window to win a Super Bowl certainly isn’t closed, it’s definitely not as wide as it once seemed.

Conclusion

Packers fans have a right to be excited about the future—they’re a young team playing well with a chance to do something meaningful in the upcoming years. Regardless, winning in the NFL is hard. A lot of variables must fall in place at the same time, and it’s unlikely this will be the case every season. A couple unfortunate seasons could pass by and soon enough the clock will be ticking for the Packers to pay their currently young roster, almost inevitably leading to some very tough decisions for the front office to make. Just like that within a few seasons hopes for a team can start to dwindle.